Amid a radiant sunset in Memphis in May, Sharon Wilson directed a thermal imaging camera at a large AI hub to uncover a planetary threat hidden from plain view. Operating without environmental safeguards, the gas-fired turbines running an enormous AI data farms were releasing harmful gases into the Tennessee sky.
“It was jaw-dropping,” said Wilson, who calculates the facility was spewing more planet-heating gas than a major utility station. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the resulting chatbot was spreading across news feeds, echoing false narratives and producing inaccurate statements. Critics have pointed to synthetic visuals of offensive characters as an case of what fossil gas was being consumed to produce. “How does this contribute positively?”
Wilson is not alone in raising this issue. Researchers are monitoring the AI boom with apprehension as it pollutes the planet with greenhouse gases and the information ecosystem with threats ranging from medical myths to synthetic explicit media.
Certain researchers fear datacentres may hinder the shift to a clean economy, adding an unnecessary hurdle to the difficult goal of preventing the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. Others are sanguine about the energy costs, arguing they seem minor not just to other sectors, but also to the technology’s potential to reshape society.
The Exponential Energy Appetite
When an energy professor worked on projections for an leading energy organization, she spent not much focus worrying about the energy footprint of computers. Cars, cows and home heating were among the complex challenges consuming the carbon budget.
But in a specific country, the energy demand from computing has reached levels that are increasingly alarming. Datacentres guzzle one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are projected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The rapid expansion of these chip-filled warehouses has surpassed the electricity grid's capacity, leading to moratoriums on new grid connections.
“The trajectory of massive, rapid expansion is what is so worrying,” said Daly. “It's unclear whether this is a real outlier or a warning sign of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a lesson to heed.”
Globally, datacentres consume just 1% of the world’s electricity but may soon consume a greater share. Their share of electricity demand in major economies is estimated to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through deals to buy renewable power, while some tech firms have signed deals to use atomic power.
But for the foreseeable future, coal and gas are set to provide most of the power. In some regions, datacentres are clustered in areas reliant on coal-heavy power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “The notion that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – that is insufficient,” said Daly. “If there’s a massive driver of energy demand that wants to grow, it will utilize these stranded fossil fuel assets.”
Evaluating the Carbon Cost of a Interaction
Does utilizing chatbots to plan holidays endanger the planet? Tech companies have resisted pressure to provide detailed data on their AI energy footprints, but common estimates hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, increasing significantly for more complex tasks. One CEO recently asserted a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These numbers are negligible compared to activities such as flying, eating meat, or driving a car. Nevertheless, concerned voices worry about the massive volume of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the eagerness with which companies have integrated it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of background services is expected to add to the background hum.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re deploying AI in such a way that we lack a clear understanding of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “We’re essentially operating on the belief that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of getting ahead of it.”
The Possible for Climate Good
What if AI could pay off its energy debts by saving carbon in other parts of the economy? That is the premise put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to manage renewable energy, identify alternative proteins, improve energy storage tech and encourage consumers toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can hasten the deployment of those clean technologies by basically advancing their development along the curve of innovation and adoption,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The estimated emission cuts carry major unknowns – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But examples already exist. Some companies report AI has helped reduce energy for temperature control in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has optimised wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to identify problems.
Because other sectors are so carbon-intensive, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a tiny percentage to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “Regarding electricity we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “However other sectors are not there yet.”
The Other Side: Enabling Fossil Fuels
Environmentalists are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s transformative potential. The fossil fuel industry is also a significant user. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost accessible oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its operational footprint, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a gap between technological capabilities and corporate actions.
“Such technology is employed as an justification to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Observing methane from space is not halting methane.”
Perhaps even more worrying than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create highly effective advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of encouraging consumption. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could make decisions on a customer’s behalf.
“The narrative is really focused on this misleading contrast between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to overlook the negative use cases.”
Calls for Oversight and Control
A number of experts are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have called for a halt on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Different voices have called to guide the technology to do good. A few countries have started to mention AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to levy fees on computing to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider indirect climate impacts when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the responsible deployment of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a principled manner, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are energy-efficient from the start.
“Maybe I’m a little naive, but I still believe that AI can do good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – inventing the next generation of batteries, monitoring deforestation, forecasting hurricanes,” she said. “There are so many good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re creating websites filled with AI slop while datacentres are getting powered by fossil fuel plants.”
