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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.