Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
